The UK faces an above-normal risk of heatwaves in September, according to Met Office long-range forecasts, with conditions including record-dry soil, elevated sea surface temperatures, and possible high pressure to the south of the country identified as factors that could drive further heat spells.
Met Office warns of elevated heatwave risk in UK this September amid ongoing drought
The UK faces an above-normal risk of heatwaves in September, according to Met Office long-range forecasts, with conditions including record-dry soil, elevated sea surface temperatures, and possible high pressure to the south of the country identified as factors that could drive further heat spells.
The Met Office has said the summer of 2026 is likely to be the hottest on record, surpassing the record set the previous year. Even with a cooler spell forecast for the week of the article's publication — with temperatures expected to fall roughly 2 to 4C below the mid-August average — the mean temperature for the final two weeks of August would need to be considerably below average to prevent 2026 from breaking that record.
July was the driest month on record across England and Wales, according to the article, with more than two thirds of England and all of Wales currently in drought. The Environment Agency has said that 'weeks of above average rainfall' would be needed to alleviate the drought, and the rain forecast for the current week is described as insufficient to fully saturate the soil or meaningfully improve the drought situation.
Sea surface temperatures around England and Wales are currently up to 3C above average. The article explains that dry soil can cause air temperatures to rise more rapidly because no energy is lost to evaporating soil moisture, and that elevated sea temperatures can also keep land temperatures higher.
Computer forecast models suggest high pressure may become established to the south of the UK during the first part of September, which the article says typically produces dry and mostly sunny weather and may draw warmth from continental Europe. The hotter-than-average summer and increased likelihood of heat spikes had been forecast by the Met Office and MeteoGroup — identified as the BBC's weather data providers — as far back as June, based on weather pattern analysis and predictions linked to human-induced climate change.
Meteorological summer ends on 31 August, with September, October, and November constituting meteorological autumn. The Met Office long-range forecast for that three-month period states the chance of a warm period is 'higher than normal,' with an 'increased risk of heatwaves and heat-related impacts, especially during the first half of the period.' The same forecast suggests autumn is likely to be drier than average.
- The source does not state the specific dates or duration of any of the five heatwaves already recorded in 2026.
- The source does not define the temperature threshold used to classify a period as a heatwave in the UK context.
- The source does not state the exact rainfall total forecast for the current week or how it compares to what would be needed to begin reversing drought conditions.
- The source does not specify which regions of the UK are most likely to experience any September warm spell.
- The source does not state the current record high mean summer temperature that 2026 is at risk of surpassing, nor the precise margin by which 2026 is ahead of it.
- The source does not provide independent verification of the sea surface temperature anomaly figure beyond the Earth Nullschool image caption.