Ukraine has been launching drone strikes hundreds of kilometres into Russian territory almost daily since June, hitting oil refineries, energy infrastructure, and warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia's largest online marketplace, with some drones travelling more than 2,000 kilometres to reach targets in Siberia. Analysts are divided on whether the campaign is achieving its stated goals or risk provoking escalation and rallying Russian public opinion behind the war.
Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign draws debate over risks and effectiveness
Ukraine has been launching drone strikes hundreds of kilometres into Russian territory almost daily since June, hitting oil refineries, energy infrastructure, and warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia's largest online marketplace, with some drones travelling more than 2,000 kilometres to reach targets in Siberia. Analysts are divided on whether the campaign is achieving its stated goals or risk provoking escalation and rallying Russian public opinion behind the war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated his aim is to make ordinary Russians feel the consequences of the war by damaging Russia's economy and disrupting daily life.
One of Ukraine's deadliest recent strikes occurred on a Sunday night, killing at least 13 people, including a child. Russian authorities reported shooting down 456 Ukrainian drones during that attack, though some reached their targets, striking an oil refinery and a hostel in the city of Nizhnekamsk, more than 1,000 kilometres east of Moscow. The previous week, seven people were killed on a beach in southern Russia when an intercepted Ukrainian drone crashed.
Ukraine has justified the strikes as a response to Russian bombardments of civilian targets in Ukrainian cities, which have also intensified recently.
More than 20 Wildberries warehouses have been struck. Ukraine describes the company as a legitimate wartime target on the grounds that it sells military equipment. Wildberries is used by approximately 79 million people each month and accounts for around two per cent of Russia's GDP.
Russia's oil refining capacity has reportedly fallen by approximately 20 per cent as a result of repeated Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities, and long queues at petrol stations have been reported across Russia during the summer.
As Ukraine has intensified strikes inside Russia, Moscow has responded by targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, including the Odesa Port, which has been struck repeatedly. Russia has also targeted petrol stations, bridges, and railway systems in eastern Ukraine.
The United Nations said earlier in the month there had been a 'disturbing escalation' in civilian deaths, with hundreds killed and thousands injured in Ukraine during the summer. Ukraine also reported receiving only a third of the air defence systems from allies this year compared to the same period the previous year.
Analysts suggest Ukraine's drone campaign may also be intended to pressure Russia back to peace negotiations, though there is currently little indication that is occurring.
- The Russian government's official position on the drone campaign beyond operational air-defence reporting is not detailed in the source.
- No independent verification of the Russian claim of 456 drones shot down is provided.
- The specific types of military equipment allegedly sold by Wildberries, which Ukraine uses to justify targeting its warehouses, are not described.
- The extent of civilian versus military economic damage caused by strikes on Wildberries warehouses is not assessed.
- The source does not identify which allied countries have reduced air defence deliveries to Ukraine or explain why.
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