Trump announces Russian diesel supply deal and says Ukraine and Russia agree to energy ceasefire

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and global markets, with another 500,000 tonnes to follow in November and a further 1 million tonnes afterwards, according to Arab News. On Sunday Trump said on social media that Ukraine and Russia had both agreed to an 'energy ceasefire' covering energy-related infrastructure, offering no details of the arrangement, NPR reported. Oil prices fell on Monday, with Brent crude futures down $1.54, or 1.47 percent, to $103.18 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate at $90.31, down $1.68 percent, while ICE gasoil futures fell 3 percent to $1,436 per metric ton, Arab News reported. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that Russia had continued missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and a bipartisan group of US senators said in a statement on Sunday that Trump's proposal was unlawful, according to NPR.

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat of New Hampshire, told NPR in an interview broadcast on 12 October, while travelling in Croatia, that she saw no reason to believe the diesel arrangement was authentic. She said Congress passed a law in 2022 that expressly prohibited Russian imports and required the administration to consult Congress and meet conditions set by Congress before allowing them, and that the administration had not done so. She also questioned whether Russia had diesel available to supply, citing queues for fuel in Russia after strikes on its energy infrastructure, and said Americans were suffering high fuel and living costs because of the war with Iran rather than the diesel deal.

According to NPR, Zelenskyy wrote on the social media platform X that Ukraine had not attacked while Russia struck gas stations and other facilities, that a jet-powered Iranian 'shahed' drone fired from Russia hit a gas production facility around midnight, that other drones struck at least five more energy-related targets, and that 33 people were reported wounded. He later said Ukraine supported the concept of an energy ceasefire but called for more pressure on Russia for de-escalation to succeed, saying there was no indication Russia was complying with the conditions outlined by the American president.

NPR reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejected the idea of an energy ceasefire when asked about it on Monday, describing it as another attempt by Zelenskyy to exploit a proposed pause in fighting to regroup and rearm, and saying he did not think Zelenskyy deserved a respite. NPR said it asked the White House for comment on Russia's overnight strikes and on what they meant for the proposed ceasefire, and that administration officials had not responded.

Russia's state news agency TASS confirmed on Monday that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had agreed to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States in October, with monthly supplies increasing in the months ahead, NPR reported. TASS also reported that the US administration had issued a general license authorising Russian diesel supplies to the global market until April 7, 2027.

According to NPR, the bipartisan group of US senators said in their Sunday statement that Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin's war against Ukraine. NPR reported that Zelenskyy called Trump's move a 'weak decision', and that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday it stood 'in direct opposition' to international peace efforts. In a statement on Monday, Trump described his effort to partner with Russia to lower US energy prices as part of his 'America First' strategy, writing that the European Union had paid Russia $250 billion for energy and that he had made the right choice for the American people, according to NPR.

NPR also reported that Ukrainian forces struck large data centres inside Russia operated by Yandex, a company often described as Russia's version of Google, causing service outages in parts of Russia, and that Zelenskyy said the strikes had reduced the number of Russian propaganda bots on social media.

Arab News reported that Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said the announcements had eased some immediate supply pressure but that questions remained over the validity and longevity of any ceasefire and that the extent of the price pullback was likely to stay limited without clearer evidence it would hold. The International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, said on Sunday that all members should assess whether additional diesel releases were necessary and that countries which had not fully delivered pledged volumes should accelerate the remaining releases, prioritising diesel, according to Arab News. Arab News cited the IEA as forecasting global daily diesel consumption at close to 29 million barrels.

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for December to $90 a barrel from $85, with analysts led by Daan Struyven saying in a note quoted by Arab News that Middle East supply adaptation would eventually reduce crude prices while renewed escalation still posed net upside risk, with a risk premium estimated at just over $20 a barrel, and forecasting WTI to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027.

Arab News reported that Brent remained supported above $100 a barrel by the Middle East conflict. The Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, while Saudi authorities reported injuries in a new attack on the airport on Sunday. Arab News reported that Trump said on Saturday the US was considering joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis in the conflict, which it described as a spillover from the wider war with Iran that the US and Israel launched in February. More attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were reported this month, including one struck by a drone near Sohar anchorage in Oman and another damaged by an unknown projectile in the strait, per the UK Maritime Trade Operations. In the Gulf of Mexico, Shell, Chevron and BP were seeking to redeploy personnel and restore production after Hurricane Isaias made landfall early on Saturday.

NPR reported that Trump's efforts to broker a deal protecting energy infrastructure in the warring nations come amid rising US fuel prices following his decision to go to war with Iran, and that gas prices have emerged as a major challenge for Trump and his Republican allies ahead of next month's midterm election.

In the NPR interview, Shaheen said there was already bipartisan opposition to allowing Russian diesel into the United States, that there was bipartisan support for Ukraine, and that she hoped Republican colleagues would be willing to stand up to the president after November. Asked whether Democrats would have the numbers to act as an effective check on the president if in the majority, she said voters would decide in November. NPR noted it had invited multiple Republican lawmakers to join the programme and that the invitations remained open.

Where sources differ

• Volume of the October diesel shipment: Arab News reported Trump's figure as more than 300,000 metric tonnes, which it equated to 2.25 million barrels; NPR, citing Russia's TASS news agency, reported that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak agreed to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States in October.
• Russian comment on the energy ceasefire: Arab News reported that Russia did not comment after Trump's Sunday announcement, while NPR reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejected the idea when asked about it on Monday.
• Assessment of the arrangement's validity: Senator Jeanne Shaheen said in the NPR interview that there was no reason to believe the deal was authentic and questioned whether Russia had diesel to supply, while TASS, as reported by NPR, confirmed a supply agreement and the US general license.

• No source sets out the terms, duration, monitoring or verification mechanism of the 'energy ceasefire'; Trump offered no details.
• No source independently confirms the diesel volumes, delivery schedule or whether any shipments have actually begun; the figures rest on statements by Trump and by Russia's TASS news agency.
• The US general license authorising Russian diesel supplies to the global market until April 7, 2027 is reported only through TASS; no US official confirms its terms in these sources.
• No individual Republican lawmaker is quoted; NPR said it invited multiple Republican lawmakers and that the invitations remained open, and Senator Shaheen's remarks about Republican colleagues were made without any Republican response in these sources.
• No European Union official is quoted, although Trump's statement referenced EU energy payments to Russia.
• No source establishes whether Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have ceased, despite Zelenskyy's statement that Ukraine respected the ceasefire call.
• Casualty and damage figures — 33 wounded in Ukraine, 13 killed and more than 300 wounded at Riyadh's airport, and the Yandex outages — are each reported from a single side or single source without independent verification.
• No source reports the outcome of the congressional objection raised by the bipartisan senators or any formal response to it from the administration beyond Trump's public statements.
• No source establishes the position of the Russian government on the diesel supply figures beyond the TASS report, or whether Russia disputes the ceasefire's existence as Lavrov's remarks suggest.

1. CT Public — original — by Steve Inskeep
2. Arab News — by Reuters
3. NPR News — by The Associated Press

Read the original at CT Public

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