David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, won the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary over state legislator Francesca Hong in a race that defied pre-election polling, which had shown Hong with a lead of nearly 20 points, according to NBC News, or as much as 22 points, according to The Atlantic. Crowley had previously withdrawn from the race on July 8 before returning, and his margin of victory was less than one percentage point.
David Crowley wins Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary over Francesca Hong
David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, won the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary over state legislator Francesca Hong in a race that defied pre-election polling, which had shown Hong with a lead of nearly 20 points, according to NBC News, or as much as 22 points, according to The Atlantic. Crowley had previously withdrawn from the race on July 8 before returning, and his margin of victory was less than one percentage point.
Crowley's path to the nomination was shaped by the exits of two other mainstream candidates. Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez suspended her campaign in mid-July due to financial irregularities, according to The Atlantic. Former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes withdrew at the end of July, at which point one poll showed Hong 22 points ahead, according to The Atlantic. NBC News describes Crowley as having dropped out on July 8, with his eventual return coming roughly five weeks later following what it characterises as 'a moment of panic' that set off an unlikely series of events.
Hong is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, an organisation that, according to The Atlantic, calls for public ownership of large corporations, looser immigration laws, and the abolition of prisons. Hong has said she does not agree with all of the DSA platform, according to The Atlantic. NBC News describes her as a democratic socialist and characterises Crowley as a moderate.
The Atlantic reports that Hong entered the contest with an unscrubbed social media history, including past posts criticising Thanksgiving, Christmas, Valentine's Day, and Halloween. In a CNN interview with Kaitlan Collins, Hong said that 'Thanksgiving is also a time that's incredibly painful for many people in our communities,' and later clarified that she 'actually loves it' but is 'kind of a curmudgeon when it comes to holidays in general,' according to The Atlantic.
According to The Atlantic, prominent left-wing figures Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders did not endorse Hong during the primary. The Atlantic also notes that left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who it says stated in 2019 that America deserved the September 11 attacks, appeared at a Hong campaign rally in suburban Milwaukee.
NBC News reports that primary elections characteristically feature large numbers of undecided voters and lower public attention, making late persuasion easier. It notes that predicting vote choices based on variables such as race, education, and turnout is inherently difficult, and that a combination of these factors likely produced the significant polling miss in Wisconsin.
NBC News notes that Crowley will face a Republican nominee who, while in Congress, went along with Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election, without naming that nominee. The Atlantic identifies Wisconsin as a crucial swing state governorship.
Where sources differ
- The size of Hong's polling lead: NBC News states she led by 'nearly 20 points,' while The Atlantic cites a specific poll showing her '22 points ahead' at the time Barnes withdrew.
- Framing of the outcome: The Atlantic characterises Hong's loss as 'great news for American democracy' and describes her as a 'profoundly flawed candidate,' reflecting an editorial stance. NBC News presents the result in neutral terms, focusing on polling methodology rather than the desirability of the outcome.
- Crowley has not been quoted in either source explaining his decision to re-enter the race or responding to the primary result.
- The identity of the Republican nominee Crowley will face in the general election is not named in either source.
- The specific 'moment of panic' NBC News references as triggering Crowley's return is not explained in the supplied text.
- The nature of the financial irregularities that led Sara Rodriguez to suspend her campaign is not detailed in either source.
- Mandela Barnes's stated reasons for withdrawing are not described beyond the timing of his exit.
- Final vote totals or vote share percentages for the two candidates are not provided in either source.
- Crowley's policy platform and general-election strategy are not described in either source.
- NBC News — original — by Elizabeth Robinson
- The Atlantic — by Helen Lewis