NBC News launched polling averages showing Democrats leading by 9 percentage points, 52% to 43%, on the generic congressional ballot, the widest Democratic edge of Donald Trump's second term, according to an analysis by Scott Bland published in the network's From the Politics Desk newsletter. The averages combine available public surveys on two measures: Trump's approval rating and which party voters say they will back for Congress this fall, Bland wrote.
NBC News polling average shows Democrats leading by 9 points for Congress
NBC News launched polling averages showing Democrats leading by 9 percentage points, 52% to 43%, on the generic congressional ballot, the widest Democratic edge of Donald Trump's second term, according to an analysis by Scott Bland published in the network's From the Politics Desk newsletter. The averages combine available public surveys on two measures: Trump's approval rating and which party voters say they will back for Congress this fall, Bland wrote.
The Democratic edge on the generic ballot — poll questions asking which party voters plan to support or want to see in control of Congress — is the widest it has been in Trump's second term, and the gap expanded after the network switched to calculating its average for likely voters instead of registered voters, according to the analysis. The 9-point advantage comes from a 52%-43% average, leaving about 5% of respondents to all the polls unaccounted for, whether they are undecided, not sure about voting or choosing a third-party candidate, Bland wrote.
Trump's approval rating among independents stands at 26% in the polling average, and independents are breaking toward Democrats on the generic ballot, according to the analysis. Bland wrote that Trump's approval has dipped about 10 points among Republicans since his second inauguration and that he faces skepticism from parts of his party about the Iran war and the economy.
Bland wrote that the respondents not accounted for in the average, along with soft supporters on either side, could move in the coming weeks. He cited the Democratic Party's remaining unpopularity as one possible factor and rising prices and the Iran war among others that could prompt some 2024 Trump voters to back local Democratic candidates.
In the same newsletter, NBC News reported that Vivek Ramaswamy won Ohio's Republican primary for governor in May with 82.4% of the vote but ran below his statewide share in 29 of the 32 counties classified as Appalachia, with seven of his 10 weakest counties in the region that rings eastern and southern Ohio along the Ohio River. The report said Democrats see an opening in rural counties where Ramaswamy won by smaller margins against a largely unknown opponent.
Amy Acton, Ramaswamy's Democratic rival, has made repeated trips to the region, visiting Shawnee State University in Portsmouth during a two-day swing last week and stopping in Marietta, where the report said she has the endorsement of the City Council president, a Republican. According to the report, Acton is unlikely to win places that have decisively backed Trump in recent elections, and her goal is to hold down Ramaswamy's percentages there. The report said Ramaswamy's difficulties stem in part from a tough political climate for Republicans nationwide, citing conversations with more than a dozen Ohio activists and operatives from both parties, and that Ramaswamy, a billionaire who made his fortune in biotech, travels the state by private plane while affordability concerns, including a war-related rise in gas and diesel prices, are felt in Appalachia.
- The source does not state the date the polling averages were launched or the date the newsletter was published.
- The source does not identify which polls are included in the averages, how many there are, their sample sizes, or the period they cover.
- The source does not state a margin of error for the polling averages.
- The source does not include any response from Vivek Ramaswamy or his campaign to his primary results in Appalachian counties or to Amy Acton's campaign activity there.
- The source's editor's note refers to Ohio's Senate race, while the reported item concerns the governor's race.
- The source does not give specific dates for Acton's two-day swing beyond "last week" and does not state whether Ramaswamy has campaigned in the region.